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Prediction for CME (2026-07-30T16:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-30T16:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47871/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a NE halo in STEREO A COR2, and a NW halo in GOES CCOR-1 partially blocked by the pylon. SOHO LASCO C2/C3 not available in real-time due to a downlink gap. The source is associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 14492 peaking at 2026-07-30T17:00Z, observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed as filament ejecta in SDO AIA 304 first lifting as early as 2026-07-30T15:18Z, more eruptively after 2026-07-15:43Z. SDO AIA 171/193 observe brightening, dimming, field line movement, EUV wave, and post-eruptive arcades. | Arrival: Characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal jumping from ~4.4nT to ~14.3 at 2026-08-02T11:28Z, reaching a maximum B_total of 21.5nT at 2026-08-02T14:56Z and maximum southward B_z of -17.41nT at 2026-08-02T15:02Z. There is a corresponding sharp increase in speed observed from ~290 km/s to ~360 km/s, reaching a maximum speed ~430 km/s. Temperature also increases from ~34,000 K to ~313,000 K further reaching ~479.6k K, with density increasing from ~3 p/cc to ~37 p/cc. This signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-07-30T16:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-02T11:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-02T03:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47890/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-30T16:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=43.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=930.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2026-07-30T20:34Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-02T03:16Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-31T08:51Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-02T19:28Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-01T04:33Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-01T21:58Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260730_203400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 58.77 hour(s)
Difference: 8.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-31T00:42Z

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